Bernstein $450B Crypto ETF Predictions

Blackwing Farm Alpha | 2,000,000 Airdrop Analyses

Marco Manoppo & Karon Pangestu
May 29, 2024

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Good Morning.

TIA and WIF outperformed in the past 24 hours. Are we back in time to two months ago? Anyway, ETH beta seems to be a good play until we see further certainties in the market. Maybe the memes are frontrunning treasury bond purchases? We shall see…

In Today's Email:

What Matters: Bernstein’s $450B ETF prediction 🔮
Case Study: 2 million airdrop analyses 👊
Governance & Features: Maple’s new product 🍁

You read and share. We listen and improve. Send us feedback at marco@launchy.app.

Narratives: Risk on is back… soon?

For more & quicker alpha (narratives, airdrops, trading strategies), check out our telegram.

WHAT MATTERS

Bernstein Predicts Crypto ETF Markets to Reach $450B

Bernstein

State of play: According to broker Bernstein’s research report, Bitcoin and Ether ETFs are expected to grow to a $450B market, with over $100B inflows over the next 18-24 months.

Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will reach $150,000 in 2025, with a year-end target of $90,000.
The report said that Ether's classification as a commodity, not a security, settles the "biggest controversy."
Bernstein notes that ETH is the first PoS token approved as an ETF, paving the way for blockchain assets to evolve from token sales.

What’s next: Ether surged 26% last week after the SEC approved 19b-4 filings for eight spot ETH ETFs. Trading will commence once the S1 filings are approved.

Bernstein notes that Bitcoin rallied 75% since spot ETF approval and expects similar price action for Ether.

Why it matters: According to Bernstein’s report, the approval of a spot Ether ETF in the US provides significant regulatory relief for the crypto industry.

It raises expectations for SOL to be categorized as a commodity.

Our take: ETFs will further separate major crypto assets (BTC and ETH) from the rest of the markets — addressing different liquidity flows on various segments of the markets will be key.

For builders and investors: ETFs + treasury bond purchase. Seems like we’re staying higher for longer folks.

CASE STUDY

2,000,000 Airdrop Events Analysis

6MV

Credits to 6MV for the original research

State of play: Airdrops are a common but understudied part of TGE. 6MV studied over 2 million airdrop events across 40 protocols, focusing on supply to airdrop and eligibility for airdrops

Here are the key takeaways from 6MV’s analysis of 40 airdrops and the activity of 2M unique wallets:

6MV finds that only 10 of the 40 airdrops had a higher price two months after the airdrop.
Across four categories, performance converged to a 10-40% price decrease after 60 days.
Large token distribution events (over 1% of supply) usually create selling pressure, leading to lower stabilization.
Core (only for core users) airdrop cohorts performed better than Widespread (to general ecosystem users).
The Large + Widespread cohort had the worst price performance and volatility.
Airdrop size did not conclusively affect price performance or volatility.
Widespread Airdrops result in 2x more sellers.
Small Airdrops to Core Users result in 4-8x more buyers.

Below is the table of “Price Changes post Airdrop”:

6MV

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INSIGHTS

Blackwing Moon-Math

Blackwing Airdrop Calculator - Thor Hartvigsen

Thor Hartvigsen said in a tweet that despite being somewhat late to the trend, Blackwing is currently a highly promising and often overlooked farm.

Blackwing has been live since April 1st, offering the opportunity to deposit assets and earn BXP points.
To date, 12.3M BXP have been emitted.
Users can deposit stablecoins, ETH, LRTs, or Pendle fixed yield PT tokens.

Note: Blackwing is in beta, you will need an invite code to sign up.

Hartvigsen provides a calculator to estimate returns based on the number of points, considering the airdrop percentage, FDV, and the total points emitted at the end of the Blackwing campaign.

Click here to access the calculator.

FEATURES & GOVERNANCE UPDATE

Maple Finance Unveils Syrup Yield Platform

Maple Finance has launched Syrup, a new loan platform and rewards token, to connect institutional-friendly yield-bearing digital assets with DeFi.

Syrup offers users 15% yields by depositing USDC and receiving LP tokens (syrupUSDC).
Users will earn additional yield through "Drips" loyalty payments using the SYRUP rewards token.
Maple’s native token ($MPL) holders can migrate to the SYRUP token on a one-for-one basis.

Other notable feature updates:

Lyra launched C-Token.
Sanko Mainnet goes live.
Catalyst Mainnet goes live.
Splice goes live on Mode L2.
CapybaraDEX goes live on Kaia Chain.
Usual launched its website for early access.
Picasso now supports Solana and IBC transfers.
USDe yield retained portion is reduced to 20%.
Uniswap Labs & Across Protocol introduced ERC-7683.

QUICK BITES

FalconX starts FX desk.
LSE begins trading Bitcoin ETPs.
BlackRock surpasses Grayscale’s BTC holdings.
Ripple donates another $25M to crypto super PAC.
Mt.Gox moves $7B BTC as part of repayment plans.
Binance France replaces CZ to comply with the law.
Two BlackRock funds added IBIT to their portfolio in Q1.
MoonPay launches a new Web3 tool platform for brands.
Elwood Technologies in talks to sell part of the business.
Grayscale finds Bitcoin increasingly relevant in the 2024 US election.
Institutional Investors now control 1M+ Bitcoin through Bitcoin ETFs.

NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME

Celestia’s read on blockchains as sovereign communities.
Biconomy’s read on AI agents transforming the web3 UX.
@knveth’s read on the point of product launching their own chain.

Typically Caitlyn Jenner, Rich the Kid, and Iggy Azalea making coins while a crypto wallet hits #1 on the app store are bottom signals
— based16z (@based16z)
4:33 AM • May 28, 2024

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Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.