BlackRock Owns 5% of [Micro]Strategy

VanEck’s $520 SOL Prediction | TON Games Struggling

Marco Manoppo & Karon Pangestu
February 10, 2025

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Good Morning.

Scrolling through crypto Twitter certainly feels like we’re almost at the local bottom, but I don’t want to jinx it. This cycle, without a doubt, is a weird one. Patterns from prior cycles aren’t as easily implemented and returns are much more dispersed. The last few weeks have certainly feel super PVP. Stay cautious friends.

In Today's Email:

What Matters: BlackRock Now Owns 5% of Strategy 💰️
Product: Arweave’s AO Goes Live 🖥️
Charts: VanEck’s Solana Prediction 📈 , TON Games Retention & Revenue 📉

Narratives: Shift your focus back to finding yield in new chains with incentives.

For daily market updates and airdrop alphas, check out our telegram!

You read and share. We listen and improve. Send us feedback at marco@launchy.app.

WHAT MATTERS

BlackRock Now Owns 5% of Strategy

BlackRock’s Schedule 13G Filing

State of play: BlackRock has increased its stake in Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) from 4.09% to 5% by purchasing an additional 1.78M shares, bringing its total holding to 11.26M shares ($3.67 billion at the current share price).

This move coincides with Strategy's ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin.
Strategy now holds 471,107 BTC, valued at over $46B, despite reporting a net loss of $670.8M.
The 5% ownership threshold required BlackRock to file a Schedule 13G with the SEC, a form used by institutional investors who do not intend to influence the company’s management.

What’s next: As Strategy aggressively accumulates BTC, investors should watch DC's policy shifts and economic signals, which are likely to drive crypto performance in the coming months.

For builders and investors: TradFi (3,3) and BTC strength are what keep the total market cap above $3T. Shame that most of CT don’t own enough BTC.

Take a peek at our referral reward at the bottom of this issue. Share this newsletter and receive our list of 500 crypto VC individuals 👇

PRODUCT OF THE WEEK

Arweave’s AO Goes Live

Arweave has launched the mainnet for its computing platform AO after a year-long testnet phase.

AO is described as a “hyperparallel computer.”
It leverages Arweave’s immutable data storage to power scalable on-chain computations and support new dApps.
With the mainnet release, native AO tokens become transferable.
$AO is capped at 21M and distributed via a fair launch model (36% allocated to AR holders and 64% reserved for economic growth incentives).
Notably, over $700M in assets were pre-bridged to AO during the testnet.

Other cool products:

Stablemetal, a TON token backed by real metal slag.
Liqwid, a lending and borrowing protocol on Cardano.
AIGOS, a platform that integrates AI, DeFi, and Gaming.
Levvy Finance, a Peer-to-Peer lending protocol on Cardano.
MDBAPP, a token creation & management platform for BSC/AVAX.

CHARTS OF THE WEEK

VanEck Predicts Solana at $520 by End-2025

The Block / TradingView

State of play: VanEck predicts that Solana’s price could reach $520 by the end of 2025.

Using an autoregressive model, the firm estimates Solana’s market cap will hit ~$250B based on the 486M circulating tokens, representing a 160% increase from its current trading price of about $203.

This forecast is driven by an expected expansion of Solana’s share in the smart contract platform market from 15% to 22%.
VanEck’s analysis also factors in US M2 money supply growth.
Solana saw over 135M active wallet addresses at its recent height in November.
Van Eck notes that it holds positions in Solana.
Additionally, VanEck has applied to the SEC to launch a spot Solana ETF.

Our take: It’s a fight between the unlocks, the ETFs, and Solana’s edge as the primary onchain casino venue for all crypto speculators.

TON Games Struggle with Q4 Retention & Revenue

TON Wallets Stat

State of play: A report by Helika reveals that Telegram games struggled in Q4 2024, with user retention rates between 5% and 20%, well below the traditional 20% to 30% benchmark.

Disappointing airdrop outcomes contributed to a sharp decline in user activity after an initial surge driven by tap-to-earn hype.
Despite these challenges, the TON blockchain experienced robust growth, adding over 100M new accounts in the past year.
Additionally, Telegram’s recent mandate that crypto apps exclusively use TON may solidify its position but could also alienate some developers.
Helika also found that Telegram gamers' ARPU was volatile and low, with falling traffic sales.
The report also stated that unfinished in-app models left few teams with workable unit economics.

Our Take: Telegram games were a quick way for users in emerging markets to capitalize on excess liquidity but now those liquidities are gone and attention has move on.

QUICK BITES

Arweave’s AO goes live on mainnet.
Kanye West quashes memecoin launch rumors.
Telegram games had trouble earning revenue in Q4.
Florida senator files bill to allow state to invest in BTC.
Solana could nearly triple in price in 2025, says VanEck.
House Republicans push forward on stablecoin regulation.
CFTC plans to host a CEO forum on stablecoins and collateral.
Kraken lists ‘JAILSTOOL’, a memecoin adopted by Dave Portnoy.
Central African Republic launches memecoin as an experiment.
SEC entered "new territory" with Solana ETF acknowledgment.
Startup founded by Citi alumni to launch XRP-backed securities.
Trump announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, crypto slides.
Brazilian Stock Exchange launching BTC options, ETH & SOL futures.
Decentralized AI opportunity is "bigger than Bitcoin," says Barry Silbert.
SEC delays the decision on BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF options until April 9th.
Japan’s financial regulator asks Apple and Google to block unregistered CEXs.

NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME

CryptoCred’s read on discounting your portfolio peak.
Donn Tze’s read on how to choose when to enter the casino.
Arthur Hayes’ read on what should you demand from the US government instead.

It must really pain the Ethereum Foundation to see the Central African Republic launching on Solana
— Gwart (@GwartyGwart)
12:16 AM • Feb 10, 2025

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Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.