JPM: GBTC $2.7B Outflow Expected

TON $51B Trading Volume | Metaplex $200K/Week Revenue

Marco Manoppo & Karon Pangestu
November 27, 2023

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Good Morning. Welcome back from the long weekend. I’m glad that the market didn’t dump — don’t need another [insert your crypto skeptic question] from a relative across the dinner table.

Also, TerraClassic (yes, that dreaded UST), soared 300% after the Do Kwon extradition news was out. This is why crypto is the best asset class.

In Today's Email:

What Matters: JPM: $2.7B GBTC outflows 🌊
Products: eesee, NFT-social 📱
Charts: Metaplex revenue, TON trading volume 📈

Narratives: DYDX unlock is coming soon. It’s worth $500M. The broader DEX perp landscape is also heating up as there are less and less non-KYC CEXs that offer perpetual swaps.

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WHAT MATTERS

JPMorgan: $2.7B GBTC Outflows Expected

GBTC Market Price - Grayscale

State of play: JPMorgan estimates a potential $2.7B outflow for GBTC post-ETF conversion, this forecast stems from traders speculating on GBTC while it traded at a discount to its net asset value.

Throughout the year, traders have purchased GBTC shares at a discount, anticipating profits if it converts to a spot bitcoin ETF.
Analysts at JPM suggest that GBTC traders might sell shares worth around $2.7B upon its ETF conversion, based on 2023 inflows.
The GBTC discount to its net asset value (NAV) is under 10% for the first time since July 2021.

$GBTC's discount is in single digits for the first time in over two years, it had been flirting w this barrier for a while and finally broke through 10% Wed night and is curr 8.6%, likely prompted by their updated filings/SEC meeting reported Wed.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas)
4:24 PM • Nov 24, 2023

What’s next: JPMorgan says a full $2.7B outflow from GBTC could pressure bitcoin prices — but expect a modest impact if funds shift to new spot bitcoin ETFs post-SEC approval.

Our take: The upside of having clarity around a spot Bitcoin ETF will outweigh any short-term outflow or sell pressure.

For builders and investors: I won’t bore you. A spot Bitcoin ETF in the US simply means that it’s easier for money to flow into Bitcoin → eventually other altcoins → eventually onchain liquidity.

It provides clarity for emerging asset managers, even those who are TradFi-focused, to differentiate their offerings by focusing on offering crypto products.

Take a peek at our referral reward at the bottom of this issue. Share this newsletter and receive our list of 500 crypto VC individuals 👇

PRODUCTS OF THE WEEK

Eesee, Gamified NFTFi & SocialFi Platform

eesee

eesee is a gamified NFTFi & SocialFi platform that boosts digital asset sales, enhances liquidity, supports artists, lowers Web3 entry costs, and promotes mass adoption with its unique protocol.

eesee combines content creation with a marketplace for NFTs.
Users can mint, sell, and trade their own NFTs with collectors, fans, and other creators.
eesee supports various types of NFTs, such as static, animated, interactive, and generative.
eesee is currently in its alpha testing phase.
eesee has a native token called ESE, it is the preferred currency for transactions on the platform and will be used as currency for fees and creators incentivization.

Other cool products:

Voyager, a Starknet explorer
Ordinalscan, a BTC ordinals explorer
findmyens, the world’s first ENS name generator
Vaultody, a custodial solution for managing digital assets
WeMeta, a user database for cross-chain apps, digital and physical

CHARTS OF THE WEEK

Metaplex Generated $200K/Week From Fees

Dune - @ilemi

State of play: According to Dune Dashboard by @ilemi, Metaplex generated ~24K SOL (~$662K) on average from fees per week in November.

@0xMert_ pointed out the trend and compared the fees generated from other Solana NFT marketplaces (i.e., Magic Eden & Tensor).
@0xMert found that Metaplex generated more fees compared to Magic Eden and Tensor, combined.
Magic Eden generated ~1.7K SOL ($~96K) while Tensor generated (~1.4 SOL) on average from fees per week in November, according to another Dune Dashboard by @ilemi.

Our take: Metaplex is the true definition of the “picks and shovels business”. It provides the infrastructure necessary for NFT projects, both collections and marketplaces, to build their offerings.

We can see this resulted in a much stronger moat and business model defensibility in comparison to pure-play NFT marketplaces such as Magic Eden and Tensor.

TON Hit $51B in Trading Volume

M3TA Analytics - OurNetwork

State of play: OurNetwork reported that TON's monthly trading volume soared to 21.7B $TON in October, equivalent to $51B at the current value.

Users can settle micropayments using TON and store or trade assets without leaving Telegram.
TON is owned by Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram, the app with 800M of monthly active users.
TON has a stable user base of 20K-30K and a monthly average of 6M txs.

Our take: Telegram is the leading backer of TON. The messaging app has integrated a self-custodial wallet into its platform, enhancing TON's potential for widespread adoption among its ~800M MAU.

QUICK BITES

Bitmex halts trading in Thailand
DYDX to unlock $500M worth of tokens.
Binance CZ argues that he isn’t a flight risk.
KyberSwap offers a 10% bounty to the hacker.
Circle seeks to expand USDC's presence in Japan.
JPMorgan says GBTC could see $2.7B of outflows.
SEC has trouble serving Hex founder Richard Heart.
Cosmos approves capping ATOM inflation rate at 10%.
Paradigm releases a statement regarding the Blast launch.
Do Kwon will be extradited to either South Korea or the US.

NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME

Decentralised’s read on interoperability for private chains.
ChainArgos’ read on Binance, Rubles, the FCA, and failed KYC.
@casparschwa’s read on why timing games are bad for Ethereum.

So you are saying you will have written a smart contract on a ZK L2 which will check for a construction permit being issued , which in turn will create and send me an NFT that unlocks and delivers 250k in USDC when the oracle checks property and utility records and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Mark Cuban (@mcuban)
10:21 PM • Nov 26, 2023

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Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.