Jupiter Crypto Conglomerate

Hayes: $70,000 BTC? | JUP Spikes 40%

Marco Manoppo & Karon Pangestu
January 27, 2025

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Good Morning.

Trump is making moves but still hasn’t stacked Bitcoin, Jupiter is flexing with a massive buyback, and MicroStrategy is playing 4D chess with its debt amid looming tax uncertainty. Meanwhile, AI-infused DeFi (DeFAI) is carving out its niche, proving that if you slap “AI” on anything, it’ll pump, at least for now.

In Today's Email:

What Matters: No Bitcoin Stockpile Yet, Hayes Sees $70K BTC Drop 📉
Product: Jupiter Massive Announcement 🤖
Charts: Jupiter Spikes 40% 📈 , MSTR to Redeem $1.05B in Notes 💸

Narratives: Let’s see how the US reacts to Trump + macro color

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WHAT MATTERS

No Bitcoin Stockpile, Hayes Sees $70K BTC Drop

Reversing the order of my tryptic essay series.
The Ugly will be published tomorrow morning. I am calling for a $70k to $75k correction in $BTC, a mini financial crisis, and a resumption of money printing that will send us to $250k by the end of the year.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes)
1:02 AM • Jan 27, 2025

State of play: Donald Trump signed an executive order forming a crypto working group led by David Sacks to develop a federal strategy for regulating crypto assets and stablecoins. It overturns Biden-era actions and blocks further work on a CBDC.

Despite the anticipation, no national Bitcoin stockpile was created, though the order calls for studying the idea.
The US government already holds $21B in crypto, mostly Bitcoin, and recently announced a plan to sell off 69,370 BTC, which caused price declines. Bitcoin holders hope Trump will halt future sales.
The first report, which will outline key policy updates, is due in less than a month.

What’s next: Arthur Hayes predicts a Bitcoin correction to $70K-$75K, followed by a mini financial crisis, which will lead to money printing and a BTC surge to $250K by year-end.

For builders and investors: Investors should brace for near-term volatility from BTC sell-offs, while long-term institutional adoption remains a key variable.

Take a peek at our referral reward at the bottom of this issue. Share this newsletter and receive our list of 500 crypto VC individuals 👇

PRODUCT OF THE WEEK

Jupiter Massive Announcement

Jupiter is hosting its Castanbul 2025 conference and many exciting announcements are being made.

Acquisition. Jupiter acquires a majority stake in Moonshot, the viral mobile trading app, and a full acquisition of Sonar Watch, a Solana DeFi portfolio management tool.
Fund. Jupiter is working with Shaw from ElizaOS to allocate $10M for AI devs that are launching via the Jupiter launchpad.
Jupnet. An omnichain network that aims to aggregate all of crypto in one single decentralized ledger for maximum ease of use for users and developers.
Token buybacks. 50% of Jupiter exchange protocol fees will now go towards buying back JUP.
Burning. 3 billion JUP tokens worth ~$3.6B have been burned to reduce emissions and decrease the platform’s FDV.

Other cool products:

Derive, a full-stack AI-driven platform for trading.
The Hive, an onchain execution with swarm architecture.
Mode, a DeFi terminal with natural language execution & AI agent store.
Spectral Labs, a perpetuals trading agents with interactive decision-making.
Empyreal, an agent launch and execute onchain actions through social media.

CHARTS OF THE WEEK

Jupiter Spikes 40% on Token Buyback & Burn Announcement

The Block

State of play: At Catstanbul 2025, Jupiter’s founder, Meow, announced the plan to burn of 3B $JUP tokens ($3.6B) and a plan to allocate 50% of protocol fees to buy back JUP for long-term holdings.

The news sent JUP soaring 40%, from $0.90 to $1.27, before a slight pullback.
Meow emphasized that JUP is meant for alignment, not expenses, reinforcing its long-term vision.
The event also marked Jupiter’s expansion into AI and memecoins, with the acquisition of Moonshot and the debut of Jupnet.
The platform also introduced its V2 upgrade and launched a $10M AI fund in partnership with Eliza Labs.

Our take: Jupiter’s token burn and buyback strategy reinforces scarcity and investor confidence, while its expansion into AI and memecoins signals a broader vision beyond DEX aggregation.

MicroStrategy to Redeem $1.05B in Notes Amid Tax Uncertainty

State of play: MicroStrategy is redeeming $1.05B in 2027 convertible notes, offering 7.0234 shares of MSTR per $1,000 in principal, effectively valuing each share at $142.38. well below MSTR’s current $374.36 price.

The move appears aimed at reducing debt and encouraging conversion to equity.
As the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with 461,000 BTC worth $48B, MicroStrategy faces a potential $18B in unrealized gains taxes.
However, the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance may lead the IRS to rule in its favor, similar to Berkshire Hathaway's exemption on securities.

Our Take: MicroStrategy’s $1.05B note redemption reduces debt amid crypto tax uncertainty. An IRS exemption could strengthen its position; if not, it faces significant tax liabilities despite holding, not selling, Bitcoin.

QUICK BITES

Jupiter acquires majority stake in Moonshot.
Fogo raises $8M at $100M valuation via Echo.
ANIME token surpasses $350M in market cap.
Jupiter says 50% of fees will go to token buybacks.
MicroStrategy to redeem $1.05B in convertible notes.
Paradigm calls for accelerating Ethereum development.
Trump’s crypto EO helped drive $1.9B in crypto fund flows.
a16z closes down UK office to double down on Trump’s America.
PumpFun set a single-day revenue record, raising $15.5M in fees.
DOGE considers blockchain adoption in government efficiency push.
Bitcoin retreats below $100,000, causing $850M in crypto liquidations.
Nasdaq files to change BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF to allow for in-kind redemption.

NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME

Matti’s read on up or down?
Tulip King’s read on narrative games.
0xJeff’s read on the battle for agents launchpad supremacy.

Walking around the streets of Oakland today telling people I’ll give them $50 of staked TIA to download a wallet, just to get it off my hands. 3 people told me DA is a commodity. One guy actually pulled a gun on me and said “nah man, keplr wallet has satanic energy”
— Gwart (@GwartyGwart)
6:48 PM • Jan 25, 2025

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