Polymarket Eyes $10B Valuation as Kalshi Nears $5B Raise

Tether’s USAT | Gemini Raises $425M in IPO

Marco Manoppo & Karon Pangestu
September 15, 2025

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Good Morning,

Prediction markets are starting to look like serious finance. Polymarket circling $10B and Kalshi at $5B shows this isn’t just betting on headlines anymore, it’s shaping up as a new asset class. The real test now is whether trading volumes can keep up with the hype.

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In Today's Email:

What Matters: Polymarket Eyes $10B Valuation as Kalshi Nears $5B Raise 💰️
Product of the Week: Tether’s USAT 💵
Charts: Gemini Raises $425M in IPO, Galaxy Buys $300M in Solana 📈

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Narratives: Solana Season?

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OGETHER WITH

0G: The First Decentralized AI Operating System

0G is the world’s first decentralized AI operating system, created to make artificial intelligence a true public good. It combines Ethereum-level security with a design built for infinite scalability, allowing AI applications to finally run fully on-chain.

This is not just vision. On the Galileo Testnet, 0G reached 50 gigabytes per second in throughput, up to 50,000 times faster than conventional blockchains.

Storage costs have dropped to five dollars per terabyte per month, cheaper than Amazon’s cloud. And with its decentralized training framework, the team has already trained a 107-billion parameter model at a fraction of the usual cost.

0G is proving what it looks like when AI becomes affordable, scalable, and verifiable.

WHAT MATTERS

Polymarket Eyes $10B Valuation as Kalshi Nears $5B Raise

Source: Appfigures

State of play: Prediction market leaders Polymarket and Kalshi are in talks to raise fresh funding at sky-high valuations, according to The Information and Business Insider.

Polymarket has reportedly received offers valuing it between $9-$10B, a massive jump from its $1B round earlier this summer.
Polymarket is preparing a US relaunch after receiving CFTC approval.
Kalshi, meanwhile, is close to raising at a $5B valuation, more than double its $2B mark just months ago.

In August, Polymarket processed $1B in volume versus Kalshi’s $875M, reflecting their growing competition. While Polymarket runs on Polygon with USDC and pseudonymous access, Kalshi remains fully CFTC-regulated with dollar deposits and strict KYC.

Both have attracted top-tier backers, with Polymarket backed by Founders Fund and Kalshi by Paradigm and Sequoia.
Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Underdog are building prediction products, while X partnered with Polymarket and Robinhood with Kalshi.
2025 has already set a record for funding in the space, with over $216M raised across 11 deals.

Why it matters: With trading volumes rivaling mid-tier crypto exchanges, they are shaping up as a new venue for price discovery on politics, sports, and macro events.

Our take: Polymarket’s decentralized model and US re-entry give it a path to global scale, but regulatory friction remains. Kalshi’s compliance-first approach has won institutional credibility, yet may limit growth outside the US.

For builders and investors: This is a signal to watch liquidity migration. If prediction markets can sustain volumes near $1B a month, they could become a new derivatives vertical.

PRODUCT OF THE WEEK

Tether’s USAT

IMG: Bitcoin News

Tether has unveiled USAT, a new US-regulated, dollar-backed stablecoin designed to complement its flagship USDT, which already has about $169B in circulation.

USAT will be issued by Anchorage Digital with support from Cantor Fitzgerald, with a rollout planned by the end of 2025.
USAT is positioned as a domestically regulated product with transparent reserves, strong governance, and a US-based leadership team.
Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, the new unit will be led by Bo Hines, a former White House Crypto Council director.

Tether’s goal is to reduce reliance on intermediaries and bring the stablecoin directly to US users and institutions, while opening the door for deeper integration with American financial markets.

Other cool products:

Tetra, a staking wallet by the Orbs team.
ChainGPT, an AI infrastructure for Web3.
FIVA, a yield tokenization protocol on TON.
RemusDEX, a permissionless, on-chain orderbook DEX on Starknet.
XPIN Network, an AI-driven decentralized communication infrastructure.

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CHARTS OF THE WEEK

Galaxy Digital Buys $300M in Solana

Source: CoinGecko

State of play: Galaxy Digital has purchased about $300M worth of SOL in the past 24 hours through Coinbase, Binance, and Bybit, according to Arkham data.

In the last five days, the firm accumulated around 6.5M SOL ($1.57B), while transferring large amounts to custody wallets on Fireblocks.
The spree follows Galaxy’s joint $1.65B private placement with Jump and Multicoin into Solana-focused Forward Industries, with $300M+ subscribed.
CEO Mike Novogratz has recently called this a “season of Solana,” citing strong momentum and improving regulatory conditions.

Our take: Galaxy is positioning Solana for institutional-scale adoption, testing its role as a treasury asset alongside Ethereum.

Gemini Raises $425M in IPO

Source: Indica Labs

State of play: Gemini raised $425M in its Nasdaq debut, selling 15.18M Class A shares at $28 each, above the expected range of $24–26.

The IPO makes Gemini the third US-listed crypto exchange, following Coinbase and Bullish.
Bloomberg reports the twins will retain 94.5% voting power post-offering.
Nasdaq Inc. also purchased $50M in shares via private placement.
Gemini set aside up to 10% of shares for insiders and users and allocated 30% to retail investors through platforms like Robinhood, SoFi, and Webull.

Our take: Gemini’s IPO priced strong with Nasdaq backing, showing solid demand.

QUICK BITES

Bo Hines named CEO of Tether's new US arm.
Ethereum stablecoin supply hits record $166B.
Ethereum Foundation sets end-to-end privacy roadmap.
Polkadot to tighten tokenomics by capping DOT supply at 2.1B.
Galaxy Digital adds $300M worth of SOL via Coinbase, Binance.
Forward Industries plans to deploy funds in Solana DeFi protocols.
Gemini IPO trades over $40 per share, sending valuation to $4.75B.
Native Markets officially claims Hyperliquid’s USDH stablecoin ticker.
Polymarket weighs financing at $9-10B valuation, Kalshi $5B valuation.
London Stock Exchange launches blockchain platform for private funds.

NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME

Coinmetrics’s read on State of the Market
Chilla’s read on Hedging a Cash Secured Put
Hitesh’s read on turn imagination into millions in next 3 years

— High Yield Harry (@HighyieldHarry)
2:06 AM • Sep 15, 2025

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