The Battle for Stablecoin Dominance in the US

Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket With $1.3B Volume | Gemini Stock Slips Post-IPO

Marco Manoppo & Karon Pangestu
September 19, 2025

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Good Morning.

Stablecoins are heating up in the US as new challengers take aim at Circle’s USDC. Tether is preparing a compliant USAT token, Hyperliquid is rolling out USDH, and fintechs like Robinhood and Revolut are building their own coins.

In Today's Email:

What Matters: The Battle for Stablecoin Dominance in the US ⚔️
Founders Highlight: Paul Kohlhaas of Bio Protocol 👨
Deal Flows: Gemini Stock Slips Post-IPO 📉

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Narratives: Stablecoin turf war

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WHAT MATTERS

The Battle for Stablecoin Dominance in the US

Source: The Block

State of play: JPMorgan analysts say Circle’s USDC is under growing pressure as Tether, Hyperliquid, and fintech firms like Robinhood and Revolut prepare rival stablecoins.

Tether plans to launch USAT, a fully GENIUS Act–compliant token with reserves held at Anchorage Digital.
Hyperliquid is rolling out USDH to reduce reliance on USDC.
JPMorgan analysts also argue that fintech-backed coins could add further strain.
Circle is countering with Arc, a blockchain built to keep USDC central.
Analysts caution that the market may remain a “zero-sum game,” with issuers trading market share unless the overall crypto sector expands.

The stablecoin market is currently valued at $278B but remains below its 8% share of total crypto market cap.

Why it matters: With supply growth tied to overall crypto market size, this could shift power rather than expand the pie.

Our take: With supply growth tied to overall crypto market size, this could shift power rather than expand the pie.

For builders and investors: Expect stablecoin liquidity to fragment across ecosystems.

BUILDER-INVESTOR HIGHLIGHT

Paul Kohlhaas of Bio Protocol

Intro: Paul Kohlhaas is the Founder and CEO of Bio Protocol, a decentralized platform merging blockchain and biotechnology to democratize funding, governance, and ownership of scientific research.

Previous background: Before Bio, Paul built experience across venture and blockchain. He started as an investment analyst at Sovereignty Capital in South Africa, then worked on blockchain identity projects at Trustlab with UNICEF support.

He founded Linum Labs, and later joined ConsenSys to lead uPort integrations, including Zug’s first blockchain-based government ID.
He also held leadership roles at Advanced Blockchain AG and the ixo Foundation, focusing on decentralized systems and impact finance.
Paul studied economics and international affairs at the University of St.Gallen

The big idea: Paul thorugh Bio Protocol aims to speed up and reduce the cost of scientific research while raising funding through token sales.

Take a peek at our referral reward at the bottom of this issue. Share this newsletter and receive our list of 500 crypto VC individuals 👇

INSIGHTS

Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket With $1.3B Volume

Source: The Block

Kalshi has surged to capture 62.2% of global prediction market volume, up from just 3.1% a year ago. The CFTC-regulated platform recorded $1.3B in trading so far this month, surpassing Polymarket’s $773M.

This marks Kalshi’s first billion-dollar month since the November 2024 US elections.
Recently, Polymarket eyes a US relaunch through its QCEX acquisition.
Meanwhile, Kalshi is strengthening its regulated position while integrating with crypto ecosystems like Solana and Base.
Both platforms are drawing investor interest, with Polymarket targeting a $9–$10B valuation and Kalshi near $5B.
Analysts see prediction markets becoming a new convergence point for crypto, AI, and news.

DEAL FLOWS

Gemini Stock Slips Post-IPO

Source: Yahoo Finance

Deal flows slowed down this week - we saw $500M+ in deals 💼

Gemini’s newly listed stock fell ~12% to ~$24, sliding below its $28 IPO price less than a week after going public.

The decline came amid broader weakness in crypto-linked equities, with Coinbase and Circle also down.
Despite the market drop, Gemini gained a boost from regulatory developments.
A Monday court filing revealed that Gemini and the US SEC have reached a “resolution in principle” to settle their dispute over Gemini’s lending program.

Deal flows in the past week:

Epoch Protocol, $1.2M Pre-Seed Round
Senpi, $4M Seed Round
BIO Protocol, $6.9M Seed Round
Titan, $7M Seed Round
Shift, Unknown $ Seed Round
Kredete, $22M Series A Round
Openverse, $8M Series B Round
Gemini, $425M IPO
Mavryk Network, $10M Strategic Round
Beezie, Unknown $ Strategic Round
RuneSoul, $4M Funding Round
Stablecore, $20M Funding Round
Hyperliquid, Unknown $ Funding Round
Superform Labs, $1.42M Public Token Sale
Anichess, Unknown $ Public Token Sale

QUICK BITES

White House eyes other candidates for CFTC chair.
Coinbase & Robinhood to benefit from interest rate cut.
Australia eases licensing rules for stablecoin intermediaries.
First won-pegged stablecoin KRW1 launches on Avalanche.
Bullish posts $108M net income in first quarterly report after IPO.
Kalshi surges past Polymarket in volume, grabs global dominance.
Ethereum Fusaka upgrade tentatively set for Dec. 3 mainnet launch.
Kraken to host token sales through Legion on its new Launch platform.
Coinbase lets users lend USDC onchain with current yields up to 10.8%.
Gemini’s Wall Street debut loses shine as stock slides below IPO price.
JPMorgan says Circle faces 'intense' competition from Tether, Hyperliquid.
Sen. Warren press for information into Trump admin's meetings with Binance.
Canadian police seize $40M in crypto from unregistered exchange TradeOgre.

NOTEWORTHY READS & MEME

Eli5DeFi’s read on Decentralized Intelligence Fabric
Delphi Digital’s read on Hyperliquid Continues to Dominate
John Wang’s read on Prediction Market Perps on Hyperliquid

i'am NOT fading this goat
— peely 🍌 (@0xpeely)
3:02 PM • Sep 18, 2025

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Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.